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In 2006 then Republican Incumbent Senator John Ensign fought off an onslaught of Republican losses and held the Nevada Senate seat with 55% of the vote. Now that Ensign resigned, opening the way for Dean Heller to be appointed and begin mounting a big Senate campaign to keep the seat in 2012, the chances of Republicans holding the seat are decent.
Many pundits believe the race could lean towards Democrats, but I find that possibility less likely. I don’t believe it will be an easy seat to keep for Heller, but I believe his chances are higher to keep it than the Democrat chances are of taking it.
First, a lot of analysts point to the 2010 Senate race as a reliable measuring tool of what will happen in 2012. I don’t agree with this as a legitimate measuring tool for a couple of reasons.
1) Sharron Angle has never won statewide office
2) Sharron Angle couldn’t even win in a primary for CD2 (2006), which includes all of Nevada outside of Las Vegas (it did before the new districts were drawn anyway…)
3) Sharron Angle was rejected by even her strongest counties, meaning she just doesn’t have the ability to win over voters and Harry Reid took advantage of this
4) In 2010 it was all about Harry Reid, the powerful Senate Majority Leader
Dean Heller provides for a completely different scenario. He served Nevada as Secretary of State for three terms (statewide election/statewide office), he won the race for CD2 in 2006, 2008 and 2010 with a strong showing, and he’s pretty popular across the board.
Now that he’s been appointed to the Senate seat, Heller has the help of incumbency, the NRSC and the power of statewide Senate infrastructure.
Furthermore, I don’t see Obama pulling the kind of numbers he had in in 2008. Nevada is in a devastating situation financially and long gone are the days of blaming Republicans. If a strong candidate for POTUS comes out of the GOP primary, Republicans should have strong numbers at the polls and this will have profound effect on the Senate race.
Our ratings could most certainly change over the next year and a half, but right now it looks like Dean Heller has a slight advantage going into 2012.
CampaignTrailReport.com has the Nevada Senate race as “Favors Republican.” Please be sure you’re subscribed to the feed to get updates as they’re posted.
-Eric Odom
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Heller didnt do anything for NV when he wass in the house, he is a fence rider that goes where the cameras are he a a very well liked foe in 2012 and hopefully she will win. Good to see the wrong angle dropped out coldnt take another season of her flip flop statements.
with the special election for hellers seat it is looking like it will got left
Arthur obviously hasn’t a clue as how to check someone’s voting record, but I bet the rest of you do. Take a look and you will see the most solid constitutional conservatives that ever served Nevada. Fence rider my happy arse. The Nevada Tea Party groups couldn’t be more pleased with this man.
A State, Nevada, that would elect Harry Reid as Senator does not offer much chance for a Conservative Senator anyway. However, since the GOP Bosses in Nevada will be selecting the Candidate for Senator, rather than the Republican electorate, it really doesn’t matter as the Republican Bosses have put up another RINO.
People shouldn’t post when they don’t have a clue what they are talking about. Do they just get off on seeing their name on a page? Probably.
Check the man’s voting record before spewing thoughtless dribble. You will be hard pressed to find a more solid conservative than Dean Heller. Find one and name one. You won’t be able to.