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It seems like each passing state (outside of New Hampshire) in the GOP primary has an “this is vital” tone to it. For Iowa it was the first shot at showing some muscle, in turn bringing fundraising dollars to both Romney and Santorum. For South Carolina it was Gingrich pounding his opponents in debates, then going on to win big in the small conservative state. In Florida it was Romney’s big chance to show he could organize and win a huge battleground state by a large margin. Nevada showed us Paul wasn’t as strong as he thought, but that he’s ready to press on.
Is it all Santorum tonight?
Things switch up a bit today as we go into the final hours of the Colorado, Missouri and Minnesota primaries. I had originally thought Romney would be very well positioned in all three of these states, but Rick Santorum appears ready to change the game. Two weeks ago these three states looked like fairly simple pick-ups for Romney. Since then, Gingrich tanked and Santorum picked up big conservative endorsements like Ed Morrissey, Michelle Malkin, Phyllis Schlafly, David Limbaugh and Tom Tancredo to name a few.
Rick Santorum really showed some strength in the last GOP debate as well. He managed to properly show a contrast between himself, Gingrich and Romney, and he hit Romney hard on Romneycare. From that point on the Not-Romney/Not-Gingrich crowd starting gathering around the Santorum window to get a look and see what’s inside.
Nevada came and went with Santorum not doing so hot, but Santorum was never expected to do well in a state where Romney and Paul have campaigned for four years. The February GOP elections weren’t previously viewed as places where Santorum could outgun Romney, but as of today that may very well change.
According to the PPP polls that just came out, Santorum looks pretty good in Missouri. Now, to be clear, Newt Gingrich did not make the ballot in Missouri so it’s a three way race with Romney and Paul. But still, a good win in a red state like Missouri would help make the case that Santorum can fight on and can pick up important states. The polls also show Santorum leading in Minnesota, which is the one that really surprises me. I figured that with the help of Tim Pawlenty and a major campaign war chest Romney would be able to quietly position himself to clean up in Minnesota. It appears, however, that might now end up being the case.
Romney still looks strong in Colorado, which is quite important for his campaign as it’s a huge general election battleground state and he won it last time around. I think a Colorado win for Romney is expected and there would be no surprise on that front. I do think, though, that a Minnesota loss to Santorum would be somewhat damning of Romney’s campaign. An upper midwest state loss like that lends credibility to the idea that Romney just isn’t popular in states where the GOP candidate should be.
Bottom line on Romney vs Santorum
I think a Missouri and Minnesota win for Santorum would be huge for his campaign and would likely lead to a big rise in momentum and fundraising. Alternatively, if that holds and Romney only gets Colorado, Romney has problems and is no longer the clear front runner.
If Romney manages to come back and win Minnesota than we’re right back where we were yesterday… with Romney positioned strong as the front-runner and everyone else splitting the vote that could stop him.
Newt Gingrich, the wild card
Judging by the polling data, Gingrich is in trouble. Gingrich isn’t on the ballot in Missouri, so that one’s out. He’s not likely to do well in Colorado, so that one’s probably out as well. Gingrich runs a close third in Minnesota, so it’s possible he pulls off a win or even a second in front of Romney, but it’s not looking like that will happen.
Will Gingrich have rally signs made that say “42 states to go” as he tries to explain the results tonight?
Ron Paul, still tagging along
I like Ron Paul and honestly my primary vote might go his way (even if it’s just a protest vote). But last place finishes today combined with not a single state win to date will further confirm my suspicions that he will not be the nominee.
Should be an interesting evening!
-Eric Odom
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