Please be advised that CampaignTrailReport.com has moved and is now fully integrated with its parent site at LibertyNews.com. Please click here to visit the official Elections & Politics section at LibertyNews.com!
Image via Wikipedia
That’s my prediction. I know there are some comments on previous posts that suggests there is a disagreement on this, but I’m now more firmly of the belief that Romney will dominate in Florida than I’ve ever been before.
There are numerous reasons for this, one of the most obvious is money. Money in many ways makes the political world go around, and in Florida, money elevates a campaign that has it, and sinks a campaign that doesn’t. Some of you who disagreed with me over previous statements about Florida suggested money wasn’t as much as a factor due to what we’re seeing play out in South Carolina. I will suggest to you, and many others analyzing this will as well, that South Carolina is an entirely different animal.
First, South Carolina is a relatively small state. In fact, you can drive from Greenville to Charleston in roughly 3 and a half hours. You can essentially circle the entire state, making multiple campaign stops, hitting all the major metro areas, in a single day. Without using flights. Which also means that you can organize campaign infrastructure state wide with just a couple of campaign offices strategically placed. In fact, if you really wanted to be thrifty you could probably get away with a single campaign HQ in Columbia.
I’m unsure of the media markets in South Carolina, but I can’t imagine there are more than 1 or 2 spanning the state. Running statewide ad campaigns is not going to be cheap, but comparatively speaking it’s going to be pretty nice when put up against the media machine of Florida.
In contrast, it takes about 12 hours to get from Pensacola, FL to Miami. With that being the case, you could spend a couple days just trying to properly tour the Florida panhandle. That wouldn’t even begin to touch the main bulk of the state of Florida. Additionally, Florida has seven major media markets and they’re all very expensive.
I have no idea what the hard numbers are, but I would think it safe to assume it costs $3-$5 million just to properly organize a basic infrastructure in Florida, which doesn’t even begin to tackle the media situation. And that’s just a basic infrastructure. I could be way off on those numbers, but hopefully you get the picture… Florida is VERY expensive.
Rick Santorum has little to no money and he’s likely to burn what he has trying to win South Carolina. Newt Gingrich might be in a slightly better situation, especially with a well funded super PAC backing him, but he doesn’t have much in place in Florida and will have to spend everything he has just to get started.
Mitt Romney on the other hand has spent years coordinating in Florida. He already has infrastructure in place from 2008 and he’s been running ads in certain Florida media markets for weeks now. And the final nail on the money side… Romney has tons of it.
Image via Wikipedia
MITT ROMNEY’S SECRET WEAPON
But all of that is not even the core reason why I think Romney will dominate. Sure, it’s a major part of it, but there is something else in the numbers few others consider. Mitt Romney has a secret weapon in Florida. His name is John McCain.
Now you might be thinking that’s ridiculous. I too first thought this. I remember seeing John McCain brought on stage in New Hampshire to endorse Mitt Romney, and at the time I thought it was simply to benefit the New Hampshire outcome. But I forgot a simple reality of 2008.
Of the 1,949,498 votes cast in the 2008 GOP Florida primary, John McCain and Mitt Romney took a combined total of 1,306,693. That’s a combined 67% of the vote. In fact, John McCain won 45 counties, Mitt Romney won 18 counties and the only other candidate to win a county was Mike Huckabee who took 4. But Mike Huckabee still came in 4th place with Rudy Giuliani coming in 3rd.
John McCain and Mitt Romney conquered Florida. And while I might be inclined to consider the fact that 2012 is a different ball game, I would only believe that factor to be a game changer IF Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich had the money/organization to compete with the John McCain/Mitt Romney machine. They do not, and being tied up in South Carolina through Saturday, they likely won’t be able to do so in time for Florida.
This reality suggests the 2008 machine built by both the McCain and Romney camps is already running, is well funded and fully operational.
Third, the RCP poll averages have been extremely accurate. Almost freakishly accurate in Iowa and New Hampshire this year. The RCP average for Florida in 2008 was also almost dead on accurate as well. In the days leading up to Florida back in 2008, the RCP average showed McCain in the lead with 30.7%, followed by Romney with 30.1%, Giuliani with 14.7%, Huckabee with 12.9%, and Paul with 3.6%.
Which is exactly the order it ended up in.
Now come back to today. According to the RCP average today, Mitt Romney commands 40% among likely primary voters in Florida. A 17.2% advantage over Newt Gingrich.
If Romney doesn’t win South Carolina I suspect that number will tighten quite a bit, but I don’t think by much. I think the 40% now siding with Romney are likely to stay there for the most part. While Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum or Ron Paul can make advances in their own numbers, it’s not at all likely they can make up that sort of spread.
In other words, Florida is pretty much a done deal and I don’t see any scenario shaking that up. The question now is… who can perform well enough in South Carolina to survive a loss in Florida?
And it’s a question we’ll soon have an answer to.
-Eric Odom
UPDATE: Also watch what kind of big state wide endorsements Romney pulls out after South Carolina. He already has them, he just hasn’t announced yet. Sort of like Governor Haley in South Carolina. You’ll see. And yes… those do make a difference and they do matter.
Related posts:
If Romney wins Florida in a landslide because of money then the American voters, at least in the key state of FL, has not truly awakened to her founding principles and the Tea Party movement will be shown, at least in FL, to be more smoke than cannon.
As far as the Romney/McCain split in 2008 they were the “primary” candidates in a pre Tea Party environment. So far you have argued two points against the validity of the Tea Party movement. If you are correct I’d highly suggest updating your resume.
As far as the RCP poll accuracy you quote in 2008 I would ask you provide something you failed to do in your article, and that is how many days before the FL primary was the poll taken. Week? or days? Even then the undecided in this election cycle and the amount of viable candidates exceed 2008.
As far as the RCP accuracy this year will that be the case if pending final Iowa results flip to Santorum?
Now consider this: If Caucus leaders dragged their heals reporting all votes knowing Santorum won then even though Romney would have still one NH the spin about his winning Iowa has likely falsely skewed post NH primary polls in at least SC and FL let alone likely padded his results in NH. Should that turn out to be fact there will be a backlash against Romney and anyone still in the race come super Tuesday might well reap the reward.
“If Romney wins Florida in a landslide because of money then the American voters, at least in the key state of FL, has not truly awakened to her founding principles and the Tea Party movement will be shown, at least in FL, to be more smoke than cannon.”
Amen.
“As far as the Romney/McCain split in 2008 they were the “primary” candidates in a pre Tea Party environment. So far you have argued two points against the validity of the Tea Party movement. If you are correct I’d highly suggest updating your resume.”
I’m a blogger and an activist, and I live in Chicago. I can’t perform miracles, but if you wish to cast blame on the decisions of Florida on me than have at it. There is only so much I can do as one person and my resume suggests nothing more.
“As far as the RCP poll accuracy you quote in 2008 I would ask you provide something you failed to do in your article, and that is how many days before the FL primary was the poll taken. Week? or days? Even then the undecided in this election cycle and the amount of viable candidates exceed 2008.”
I’ll stick with my exact words in the post when I said “In the days leading up to.” I meant days and that’s why I said it.
“As far as the RCP accuracy this year will that be the case if pending final Iowa results flip to Santorum? ”
Absolutely. It was a nail-biter in the polls and was such until the end.
On your last point consider that Romney should not have, by your desires for the power of the not-Romney vote, been competitive at all on Iowa. Yet through money, infrastructure and organization he was able to finish at the top (or tied or slight loss… whatever).
You and I can disagree on this. I have no problem with that.
Ummm Where did I blame the 2008 FL results on you? I was simply balancing your observation with my own observation based in a particular fact. Again Eric, how many days on the RCP poll? Is this not relevant? Of course it is, polls shift and become more accurate as the get closer to an actual vote. “Days” can mean anything up to a week(s) or even a month. If you don’t know how many “days” just say so. No shame in that.
As far as your Iowa comment in your reply, with all respect Sir please do not speak to my desires unless we have a ring and a date as they say ;-) Romney had every right to be perceived as competitive as his support provided. Either way he deserved the celebration of exceeding the polls that were taken “in the days leading up” to the vote but again, if common knowledge of a candidates money is itself going to sway votes in a Republican only election then not much has changed and the Tea Party movement is much ado about nothing.
And I say this as a Tea Party supporter.
Hi Eric,
First of all I don’t trust the polls. I think the media only uses them to manipulate and influence peoples decisions as to the candidate of their choice.
Second of all in regards to your prediction of Romney winning in Florida…..lets just say “It ain’t over till the fat lady sings.” I happen to believe in Newt for all the right reasons. For you to say that Romney will win Florida by a landslide is only intended to take the “wind out of the Tea Party’s sails.” Where do you get off taking people’s hopes and dreams away from them by spouting B.S. ?
Thirdly, the most insulting thing you said was that the only reason why Romney will win is because of money. Well by God, I happen to believe in miracles and good old fashion prayer. Romney has no passion…..he is another John McCain and I WILL NOT hold my nose again and vote like I did for John McCain. I get so tired of hearing that “Romney is the only electable candidate that can beat Obama.” I say vote with your heart !!! This country is missing its heartbeat and it is now in life support. Do you really think the GOP establishment is serious about cutting the spending and balancing the budget ? Of course not….the GOP establishment wants to continue with business as usual. Mitt Romney is for big government.
I really like Newt’s passion and I believe he has the ability to light this country on fire with pride and patriotism. I like that he is not politically correct but just tells it like it is…..as it should be.
I’m sorry you feel that way. It’s not at all encouraging that you think my view is B.S., but you’re entitled to your opinion.
For the record, I’m paid (yes, this is my day job) to write news based on the way I see it, not based on the way I hope it will turn out. I wrote this post based on the way I see it. You seem to want me to write it based on the way you hope it will be.
-Eric Odom
Eric, that tells me all I need to know that you are getting paid for what you do…..so obviously there is a bias in what you write.
Yes, I do work for a living. And all news is biased. But if your assertion is that I’m biased for Mitt Romney than you haven’t paid attention to what I’ve been saying over the years (outside of my job. that is).
I personally believe Mitt Romney is a big government RINO. But I also believe that as it stands today he will win Florida. Does that mean it’s what I want to happen? Nope. Because it’s not.
Outside of my “job” I spend my time in activism. Last weekend I spent a good 7 hours volunteering for a campaign in Illinois (no, it wasn’t Mitt Romney). I do what I can, where I can.
But I have to make a living and I do so reporting on what is in front of me. Based on the data in front of me, Romney is best positioned to win Florida. If that changes I’ll write about it.
It would be impossible for me to write in a manner that everyone agrees with me.
It would be nice if while we work to restore our Constitutional Republic, we could also restore investigative reporters and fact- based reporting. If Romney wins this primary it will be because the media and the pundits have been telling the public that he has it locked up since before the Iowa caucus.
I have spent literally hundreds of hours trying to track down the records of all the candidates. so that I can report to my precinct. The newspapers and the media report nothing but “polls.” The majority of Internet sources come and go and most are as bad as the newspapers and the TV. There is no such thing as unbiased reporting of facts any more. We vote based on clever, snide ads, debates rigged with slanted questions, polls that we do not know how they are worded.
I have spoken to literally hundreds of South Carolinians and NOT ONE of them wants Romney! Just who are they polling? And what are they asking? “Do you want Romney or Obama?” At the age of 68 I have seen the tone of elections change. It may well be why our government has changed!
Eric states, “And all news is biased”.
Then it should not be called news. It is opinion and should have the banner stateing such.
As I see it knowlege is best when applied with common sence. That is not Romney. Romney is nothing more than what is the ongoing of the company store taking care of itself be damned of the folks.
Also do not assume or imply the TEA PARTY is inert as many WOULD ASSERT. You have seen a taste in 2010 if you had forgotten. It is simmering and appears if money is the goal then it will erupt to a boil.
I believe the Chicago intimidate mentality blended with Washingtons arrogance there may be some that will get scalded with what is known as American liberty, Freedom and the pusuit of happyness.
Get on or off the train, beware of getting in front of it.
From a personal remark standpoint if things are being seen the way you speak, maybe a eye checkup is in order.
Be Safe
I agree with the original author. The Florida voters are much like the ones in NH and are much more sophisticated than the ones in SC in general.
However, unlike others, I do not agree that it is not what I want to have happen. As an independent and moderate voter, I can ASSURE you that Gingrich is beyond unelectable at this point. The GOP and many of the tea partiers fail to recognize that giving a candidate the nod does not give them the White House. The simple fact is that the moderates WILL NOT VOTE FOR GINGRICH, PERIOD!
So far Gingrich has shown nothing to us moderates other than he is an ultra conservative, womanizing hypocrit and the textbook definition of and old-school and corrupt “washington insider.” Sorry, but I think we will pass.
To the American Patriot Gal above, vote with “your heart” all you want, but recognize that any ticket with Gingrich’s name on it is, ultimately, a losing ticket. You may think that is unfair, but welcome to the real world. As always, it will be the independent moderates and the silent majority in this nation that decides on who is and who is not the next president. Speaking candidly, McCain actually had a pretty decent chance until he BOTCHED his VP choice. That said, you can either put your best foot forward and give us a candidate we would actually be seriously tempted to vote for, or put forth the ultra conservative candidate and Washington insider that we will (litterally) laugh off the stage come November. Your call.
I am a registered independent and I will not vote Romney….no different than McCain. How in God’s name do you suppose Romney could possibly win against Obama. Romney Care/Obama Care. I am tired of the media and the establishment selecting our candidates for us. Hispanic leaders pulled back their support, in e mail letters, to Romney and gave their support to Gingrich. They too have seen how Romney lies and caught him stating one thing in Iowa and another in Florida. There were several other concerns with them in regard to Romney.
I am a small business owner and I know several independent voters and they will stay home right along with me if Romney is the nominee. Romney/Obama…No difference!!
How stupid do you think people are? He knows exactly where his money is invested. I get reports on mine and I am sure he gets reports on his money investments…..Hard to distinguish which one flip flops more Obama, or Romney…Do your homework, Mitt Romney is surrounded by lobbyists….
I agree with you Eric, and i like Mitt Romney, he is intelligent,rich and has earned his empire, he knows how to run a business, big business, he didn’t get where he is by sitting on his duff eating candy bars. He can debate with the best, especially when it comes to people such as Newt, which in my opinion lies like a rug, he didn’t do so well last night when Mitt came at him about wall street and how much he was paid to get lobbyist on his side, he was in Washington too long and it shows he is sneaky and thinks he is can tell the American people what they want to hear, but i see right through him. I am not taken in by his so called smooth tactics, such as he tried to say that Mitt was using.
If the Republicans choose Newt as the Republican nominee i will not vote, period! because he is no different than what we have in the WH now.
[...] January 17th, 2012, I wrote a prediction that Mitt Romney would win Florida by a landslide. A few days back all of the polling data pointed to a landslide. Now the actual results are in and [...]