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Romney’s campaign may be the first in history to be less than the sum of its parts.
Until now, Mitt Romney’s campaign has defied the odds — an unexceptional, uncharismatic one-term governor with no big ideas, compelling narrative, or natural base of support doesn’t look like much of a potential frontrunner on paper. But the season’s historically weak field quite often leaves him looking like a king among fools — a kind of “least worst” candidate, if you will; someone who might be unremarkable but at least won’t embarrass the party.
Does Mitt Romney have a bold economic vision? No. Does he have plans to truly shrink the size of government? No. Does he want to use his platform to push for cultural changes in America? No. Does he have a grand foreign policy agenda that would be substantively different from the Obama years? No. Set aside bold visions — has he even proven, through his gubernatorial record, that he can implement piecemeal conservative reforms? No.
So what rationale do Republicans have to nominate this man?
Until now, the fallback answer has been the simple matter of electability. Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum are ghastly general-election candidates, we’re told; they’re either too extreme or too undisciplined to connect with swing voters — so in the name of defeating Obama, we must submit and nominate Romney.
But that reason is quickly collapsing upon itself as Rick Santorum outdoes Mitt Romney in poll after poll, in swing states ranging from Ohio to Florida.
It is highly possible — nay, highly probable — that Santorum’s general-election support will plummet, too, as voters learn about some of his more controversial votes and statements. Once he is defined by the Obama machine, he’ll become a sure loser, argue Romney’s supporters — and so we shouldn’t put stock in these early polls.
Again, that’s probably true, but it’s equally true for Romney, and we’re already witnessing his collapse. He’s proven himself to be, at times, as undisciplined as Newt Gingrich and imprudent as Rick Santorum. Romney’s unfavorability numbers have skyrocketed and he now badly trails the president in most polls. Romney has criticized President Obama for wanting to wage nuclear war against the Republican nominee instead of putting forward a positive agenda of his own. That argument ought equally to apply to Romney: if his strategy is to annihilate Obama — like he did to Gingrich and is planning on doing to Santorum — then he will find himself coming up short in November.
Ah, but Santorum is a proven loser, say Romney’s partisans. Business Week sums up the argument concisely: he lost his last race in a swing state by eighteen points. How can Republicans trust him to win with that big black mark hovering over his record?
But the only reason Romney didn’t lose by a similar margin that year is because he was too consumed by other ambitions to stay and fight. Republican governors have routinely won re-election in the Northeast, including in Massachusetts. In other blue states, such as Minnesota — the only state that didn’t vote for Ronald Reagan in 1984 and the state that put Al Franken and Jesse Ventura into office — Tim Pawlenty still held on, even in that devastating year for Republicans. But Romney left his post and decided to run for president instead. Polls at the time showed him losing to his strongest opponent by fifteen points. Why is this not disqualifying? At least Santorum gave it a shot against a similarly strong opponent.
It’s almost certainly true that Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich would be abysmal general-election candidates who embarrass the party and drag Senate and House candidates down with them. Mitt Romney is banking on dragging his feet across the finish line by simply being the last one standing.
But for conservative voters who are sick and tired of nominating the ‘least-worst’ candidate — who are crying out for a champion that’s nowhere to be found — the question existing just won’t go away: Why does Mitt Romney deserve to be the nominee? If he cannot answer this question, he may yet lose.
-Alex Knepper
If Mitt Romney’s campaign plan involved sweeping February and having the deal sealed on Super Tuesday, his advisors are likely frantically switching to plan B right now. And if Rick Santorum was hoping for a good shot at a successful hail marry pass, he’s now got it.
Rick Santorum dominated Missouri, took a commanding lead in Minnesota and ended up outgunning Romney in his own territory in Colorado. The night was flawless for Rick Santorum and an absolute nightmare for two other candidates. Let’s walk through the nightmares and then we’ll circle back to Rick Santorum.
The above image is a tweet I sent out at 8:05 PM last night. At the time my thinking was that early reports showed a possibly damning result for Mitt Romney in Minnesota. This vibe began to strengthen not long after when both Ron Paul and Rick Santorum were beating Romney in counties surrounding the St Paul and Minneapolis area. At the same time, the counties around St Louis and Kansas City were going strong for Rick Santorum as well. We knew Romney wasn’t likely to do well outside of the major metro areas, but we had no idea he would fall in the cities as well.
But if that were the worst news of the night for Romney it would have been much better than what ended up happening in Colorado. Earlier I mentioned Colorado as Romney territory. I say that because in 2008 Romney dominated Colorado, blowing out McCain and Huckabee by a huge margin. Unlike Minnesota and Missouri, Romney had significant infrastructure and organization in place across Colorado. The fact that Romney lost Colorado is wildly damaging to the narrative that Romney can win big battleground states.
Additionally, while I can’t get into the minds of Romney’s advisors, my guess is Colorado is the first state they thought they would win, but lost. I mean, the polling indicated a loss in South Carolina and the Romney team downplayed expectations going into the southern conservative state. But Colorado… all indications were that Romney would walk away with it with no problems.
I honestly believe there might have been a serious miscalculation happening on the part of the Romney team last night. I think that since they knew all three states had non-binding delegates, they decided not to spend big money in Missouri and Minnesota. They assumed they would likely win Colorado, and while they spent significant money there, they didn’t pile on to seal the deal in a big way. As a result, they ended up getting trounced in all three.
The size of the contrast between Romney losing two states and three last night simply can’t be overstated. February was supposed to be his month. It was a time for him to trump the field and show he can carry a diverse range of states going into Super Tuesday. Two weeks ago he was looking decent in Minnesota, strong in Colorado and somewhat competitive in Missouri. Today he looks like a very weak, barely front runner.
You know who got hurt worse than Romney last night? Newt Gingrich.
The second candidate to go through a nightmare scenario last night is Newt Gingrich. It’s true the Gingrich failures didn’t get as much attention as Romney’s, but the long term effect will be far more damaging for Gingrich than it will for Romney.
First, Gingrich was nothing short of an afterthought in all three states, even though his choice to forgo the ballot only occurred in Missouri. How Gingrich finished dead last in Minnesota is beyond me. He didn’t do a whole lot better in Colorado, coming in a very distant third.
Second, Gingrich has openly admitted he needs Santorum out of the race in order for him to see victory. Gingrich has gone so far as to actually call for Santorum to drop out. Now, instead of Gingrich enjoying the possibility of splitting all the Super Tuesday states with Romney, he’ll be lucky to split half of them with Rick Santorum.
Which brings me back to Santorum… can he win?
Santorum is now a very legitimate candidate and he’ll likely get a couple million dollar strong boost to his campaign by the end of the week. I don’t think his chances are great in any of the states between now and Super Tuesday, so he would be wise to focus his energy on those states. If Santorum can do well in the debate planned for later this month, raise a ton of cash and continue to unify conservatives around the idea he can win as the Not-Romney candidate, he can possibly elbow Gingrich out for a better chunk of the Super Tuesday delegates.
But just as Santorum is a hurdle for Gingrich, Gingrich returns the favor by being a major hurdle for Santorum. Both candidates will be very competitive for the conservative vote in southern primary battles that begin happening on Super Tuesday and beyond.
With all four candidates in the race, Mitt Romney is still the front-runner and likely nominee. But if Santorum continues to gain momentum and Gingrich continues to have days like yesterday, we might have ourselves a serious fight to the finish.
-Eric Odom
Yesterday I wrote about Obama’s new found love for Super PACs. You know, the type of group Obama has demonized for years and years, presenting himself as someone who doesn’t want to play that game. Obama is, after all, working towards ridding Washington of all the money power and special interest groups, right? Wait… don’t answer that.
Anyway Right Scoop dug up a gem from 2007 that I really, REALLY hope a Super PAC will turn into an ad and run it against Obama. The entire clip is worth the watch, but the money line comes at about the 0.50 mark.
So in 2007 Obama had this to say about special interest money groups.
“You can’t say yesterday you don’t believe in them and today you’re having three quarters of a million dollars spent for you. You can’t just talk the talk.”
Today Obama’s elite advisors are neck deep in building a network of special interest money groups.
Huh.
-Eric Odom
BREAKING: RICK SANTORUM IS PROJECTED TO WIN ALL THREE STATES!!!
LIVE COLORADO GOP PRIMARY ELECTION RESULTS
100% Precincts Reporting
- Rick Santorum – 40.2% PROJECTED WINNER
- Mitt Romney – 34.9%
- Newt Gingrich – 12.8%
- Ron Paul – 11.7%
PROJECTED COLORADO PRIMARY WINNER - RICK SANTORUM PROJECTED WINNER
—————————————
LIVE MINNESOTA GOP PRIMARY ELECTION RESULTS
100% Precincts Reporting
- Rick Santorum – 44.9% PROJECTED WINNER
- Ron Paul – 27.1%
- Mitt Romney – 16.9%
- Newt Gingrich – 10.8%
PROJECTED MINNESOTA PRIMARY WINNER - RICK SANTORUM PROJECTED WINNER
—————————————
LIVE MISSOURI GOP PRIMARY ELECTION RESULTS
100% Precincts Reporting
- Rick Santorum – 55.2% PROJECTED WINNER
- Mitt Romney – 25.3%
- Ron Paul – 12.2%
- NOTE: GINGRICH NOT ON BALLOT
PROJECTED MISSOURI PRIMARY WINNER - RICK SANTORUM PROJECTED WINNER
It seems like each passing state (outside of New Hampshire) in the GOP primary has an “this is vital” tone to it. For Iowa it was the first shot at showing some muscle, in turn bringing fundraising dollars to both Romney and Santorum. For South Carolina it was Gingrich pounding his opponents in debates, then going on to win big in the small conservative state. In Florida it was Romney’s big chance to show he could organize and win a huge battleground state by a large margin. Nevada showed us Paul wasn’t as strong as he thought, but that he’s ready to press on.
Is it all Santorum tonight?
Things switch up a bit today as we go into the final hours of the Colorado, Missouri and Minnesota primaries. I had originally thought Romney would be very well positioned in all three of these states, but Rick Santorum appears ready to change the game. Two weeks ago these three states looked like fairly simple pick-ups for Romney. Since then, Gingrich tanked and Santorum picked up big conservative endorsements like Ed Morrissey, Michelle Malkin, Phyllis Schlafly, David Limbaugh and Tom Tancredo to name a few.
Rick Santorum really showed some strength in the last GOP debate as well. He managed to properly show a contrast between himself, Gingrich and Romney, and he hit Romney hard on Romneycare. From that point on the Not-Romney/Not-Gingrich crowd starting gathering around the Santorum window to get a look and see what’s inside.
Nevada came and went with Santorum not doing so hot, but Santorum was never expected to do well in a state where Romney and Paul have campaigned for four years. The February GOP elections weren’t previously viewed as places where Santorum could outgun Romney, but as of today that may very well change.
According to the PPP polls that just came out, Santorum looks pretty good in Missouri. Now, to be clear, Newt Gingrich did not make the ballot in Missouri so it’s a three way race with Romney and Paul. But still, a good win in a red state like Missouri would help make the case that Santorum can fight on and can pick up important states. The polls also show Santorum leading in Minnesota, which is the one that really surprises me. I figured that with the help of Tim Pawlenty and a major campaign war chest Romney would be able to quietly position himself to clean up in Minnesota. It appears, however, that might now end up being the case.
Romney still looks strong in Colorado, which is quite important for his campaign as it’s a huge general election battleground state and he won it last time around. I think a Colorado win for Romney is expected and there would be no surprise on that front. I do think, though, that a Minnesota loss to Santorum would be somewhat damning of Romney’s campaign. An upper midwest state loss like that lends credibility to the idea that Romney just isn’t popular in states where the GOP candidate should be.
Bottom line on Romney vs Santorum
I think a Missouri and Minnesota win for Santorum would be huge for his campaign and would likely lead to a big rise in momentum and fundraising. Alternatively, if that holds and Romney only gets Colorado, Romney has problems and is no longer the clear front runner.
If Romney manages to come back and win Minnesota than we’re right back where we were yesterday… with Romney positioned strong as the front-runner and everyone else splitting the vote that could stop him.
Newt Gingrich, the wild card
Judging by the polling data, Gingrich is in trouble. Gingrich isn’t on the ballot in Missouri, so that one’s out. He’s not likely to do well in Colorado, so that one’s probably out as well. Gingrich runs a close third in Minnesota, so it’s possible he pulls off a win or even a second in front of Romney, but it’s not looking like that will happen.
Will Gingrich have rally signs made that say “42 states to go” as he tries to explain the results tonight?
Ron Paul, still tagging along
I like Ron Paul and honestly my primary vote might go his way (even if it’s just a protest vote). But last place finishes today combined with not a single state win to date will further confirm my suspicions that he will not be the nominee.
Should be an interesting evening!
-Eric Odom
Those of you who voted for and supported Obama in 2008 need to face reality… your pick lied to you, continues to lie and has no intentions whatsoever to actually clean up Washington. As an example, remember Obama’s hardline stance against Super PACs? Here’s a little reminder… from Obama’s 2010 State of the Union Address.
“Last week, the Supreme Court reversed a century of law to open the floodgates for special interests — including foreign companies — to spend without limit in our elections. Well, I don’t think American elections should be bankrolled by America’s most powerful interests, and worse, by foreign entities. They should be decided by the American people, and that’s why I’m urging Democrats and Republicans to pass a bill that helps to right this wrong.”
That’s pretty string populist language if I’ve ever seen it. The problem? Obama was against Super PAC’s before he was for them. Now he’s for them.
In a change of position, Barack Obama’s reelection campaign will begin using administration and campaign aides to fundraise for Priorities USA Action, a super PAC backing the president.
Obama has been an outspoken critic of current campaign financing laws, in particular a Supreme Court ruling that allowed the creation of super PACs. Until now he has kept his distance from Priorities USA Action.
Remember, the Democrat belief is that something is only evil when Republicans do it.
Of course, Obama supporters will likely applaud this lie because, after all, the ends justify the means.
-Eric Odom
I know, it’s a strong statement. And I know, a lot of my close friends aren’t going to like it. I’m hoping some of them may tell me what I’m not seeing here. Until then, I’ll say what I’m seeing.
So here it is… Ron Paul just can’t win this thing.
In order for Paul to have a shot at a completely discombobulated GOP convention, he would need to arrive armed with an overwhelming number of delegates. In the off-chance the convention does become brokered, Paul would need to be able to rally half the delegates in back room dealing and negotiations.
Back Iowa I thought there was some room for a play in this direction. The Paul got thumped in New Hampshire where he should have done better. Yes, he got second, but Romney beat him by around 40,000 votes. Paul was a non-factor in Florida and South Carolina, which made Nevada the place for him to flex his Caucus muscle and prove he could organize in that type of environment.
In fact, Nevada was somewhat of an embarrassment for Paul considering his campaign outspent the rest of the campaigns in media this year. According to financial records, Ron Paul almost doubled Mitt Romney in media buys since January 1st.
Paul has spent the most money in the state since January 1 with $869,650 compared to Romney’s $488,460 and “Restore Our Future’s” $73,240. Neither Newt Gingrich nor the super PAC support his candidacy have spent money in the state since the first of the year.
So in Nevada Ron Paul was well organized, it was an environment favorable to his style of campaigning, and he outspent his opponents in media. How is it then that he finished third behind Newt Gingrich, and a whopping 31% behind Mitt Romney?
Looking ahead into the February Caucuses and Primaries, I don’t see a single state where he’ll do any better. The same can easily be said for Super Tuesday.
Right now Ron Paul looks to carry an average of 10%-15% of the delegates. Not all state delegates are locked in, so that number could fluctuate by convention time, but I can’t at all see a scenario unfold where he can find another 35% of the delegates.
I’ve got some friends trying to convince me Paul still has a shot at this and I just don’t see it. Is there a place where this will all change? Is there some path to victory I’ve overlooked?
-Eric Odom
HotAir’s Jazz Shaw has a post up that has me a bit puzzled, to say the least. The post, The Worst Political Ad of 2012?, suggests the following campaign ad put out by Pete Hoekstra is racist.
Watch the ad here.
Jazz Shaw says this…
The team is describing it as satire, but there’s absolutely no way this doesn’t just fan the flames and come off as racist. Particularly since the actress in question apparently doesn’t even have an accent. Watch for yourself. This seems destined to jump into the history books alongside, “I’m not a witch.”
Actually, unless you consider borrowing money from China racist, I don’t see how this ad can be considered such. In fact, I think Shaw might be playing into the hands of the left by suggesting such. Are we not allowed to push out such a message, even though it’s actually pretty accurate and relevant?
Maybe I’m missing something here and I’m open to suggestion. But Shaw seems a little more concerned about being PC here than is usually displayed in the pages at HotAir.
Thoughts?
-Eric Odom
I would have posted results for the Nevada GOP Caucuses up sooner, but the Nevada GOP went through a full day of embarrassing itself yesterday and we didn’t have the final results until early this morning. The results are in and they’re showing Mitt Romney with another commanding win.
- Mitt Romney – 50% – 10 delegates
- Newt Gingrich – 21.1% – 4 delegates
- Ron Paul – 18.7% – 3 delegates
- Rick Santorum – 9.9% – 2 delegates
The numbers on Romney were about exactly as expected. Newt Gingrich underperformed in Nevada, considering the polls suggested he would pull at least 25%. Also notable is the fact that Both Ron Paul and Rick Santorum performed slightly better than expected. It’s possible those who had previously shown support for Gingrich shifted to Santorum and Paul.
The full delegate count (pending possible shifts from Iowa):
- Mitt Romney – 97
- Newt Gingrich – 30
- Rick Santorum – 16
- Ron Paul – 7
- Jon Huntsman – 2
-Eric Odom
Rick Santorum is unleashing a new audio ad slamming Newt Gingrich for his Moon Base comments. Ironically, the ad spot will air on satellite radio.
“Reckless spending has led to a 15 trillion dollar national debt … And what does Newt Gingrich suggest? Spending half a trillion dollar on a moon colony,” the ad says.
Below is a clip showing the comments made by Gingrich last month on the campaign trail.
Listen to the ad online at Rick Santorum’s website.
-Eric Odom
